Audrey tomason master thesis

Still another insight that the equation provides is how safe nuclear missile arsenals must be if we are to live with them for any significant period. This safety factor is found in « p. » p is made up of many factors, including the mechanical reliability of the missiles, and the psychological stability of the crews controlling them. If it is assumed that p is as small as one chance in one-hundred-million, and there are 4,000 strategic nuclear missiles in the arsenals of the nuclear powers, then it can be calculated by means of the equation that in 50 years the probability of the launch of at least one missile is about 52 % . Even if the daily chance of an accidental launch is astronomically small, some missile probably will be launched within a relatively short time.

Audrey tomason master thesis

audrey tomason master thesis

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